Friday, May 13, 2016

2016 NFL Draft - Round 1 - Fantasy Football Impact

Now that the 2016 NFL draft is complete. Let's take a look at the Fantasy Football impact.

Best Situation- Ezekiel Elliott has an opportunity to be an immediate factor in Dallas. Elliott has a top offensive line, an awesome offensive scheme, and the talent to be a top 10 fantasy football contributor from day one. Expect the star to get 20 carries per game, and to contribute receptions as well. Elliot is a lock to be the first or possibly second pick in rookie dynasty drafts.

Opportunities Galore- Corey Coleman was chosen by the Browns to be the top WR in their offense, at least until Josh Gordon gets back on the field. The Browns will be trailing often this year, so Coleman should get garbage time fantasy points this year and in the future. Cleveland does have a bunch of young WRs coming into in camp this year, but Cleveland will be giving Coleman the top billing right out of the gate.  We expect Coleman to be a 1.02-1.05 pick in most rookie dynasty drafts.

Solid Pick-  Laquon Treadwell is a great fit for the Minnesota Vikings. Taking over for the departed Mike Wallace, Treadwell will be the #1 WR from day one of training camp. The Vikings won't rely on all that much with Adrian Peterson around, but he will get plenty of targets this season, including redzone opportunities. Expect Treadwell to be selected 1.02-1.05 in rookie dynasty drafts.

Slow Start Situation- Jared Goff has all the tools to become an impact Quarterback at the NFL level, but don't expect his production to be worthy early in 2016. Los Angeles offense is run-centric, and their pass catchers are average at best. Goff will go through a year or two of tough, on-the-job training, before we will see some Fantasy Football relevant numbers.  Expect late first, early 2nd ADP in Dynasty leagues.

Boom or Bust- Will Fuller was selected by the Houston Texans with their 1st round pick in 2016. Unfortunately for Fuller, the Texans already have a young, top 5 WR in DeAndre Hopkins and Houston also selected an uber talented WR project in Braxton Miller. That said, Fuller has the measurables and the inside track for the WR2 slot. If he thrives, Fuller could be a nice situation for years, but if he falters, Miller may take his targets. Expect early to mid 1st round ADP for Fuller in rookie dynasty drafts.

Lucky Landing - Paxton Lynch will get to play for the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos. In addition, he'll have a chance to play as a rookie, depending on how well he plays and how bad Mark Sanchez performs. Denver has two excellent WRs and a decent running attack to help Lynch get comfortable in the NFL. Expect 2nd round ADP for Lynch.

Patience - Carson Wentz was selected as the Eagles first round pick in 2016, second overall in the draft. Unfortunately for him, there are two QBs on the roster that are getting paid A LOT of money. Wentz is the obvious QB of the future, but he may need a few weeks, even up to a year, as the backup to get his shot. When he takes the starting role, he should be a serviceable starting NFL QB, with top 10 potential with proper development. He's a late 1st to early 2nd pick in rookie drafts.

Sleeper- Josh Doctson is likely a year away from true fantasy value. But with the injury history of the Washington Redskins current WRs, Doctson could be forced into a prominent role earlier than expected. In an offense that was on fire towards the end of 2015, we expect 6-8 TDs from the #2 WR in Washington, which could easily be Doctson if injuries are incurred. Doctson's ADP will likely be early to mid 1st round in Dynasty Rookie drafts.

*IDP Watch List- 
Joey Bosa- As the 3rd overall pick in the draft, Bosa comes to the NFL with high expectations. In San Diego, he'll be asked to fill a DE spot immediately. Simply starting puts Bosa into IDP relativity, and his talent could make him a strong candidate for top 25 DE very soon. We see 2nd or 3rd round ADP for Bosa in Rookie Dynasty IDP drafts.
Karl Joseph - The Raiders have a solid playmaker poised for a three down role as starting safety. He has potential to make big plays in the passing game with his knack for take-aways.  His ADP will be 4th-5th round. 
Keanu Neal- Another good safety in an excellent position to be an immediate starter for the Falcons. Neal will get his chances at tackles, and could be Dan Quinn's next Kam Chancellor type of player. Expect 4th round ADP for Neal.
Darron Lee.- Is a natural three-down player who can tackle, cover and blitz. He's small for the position, but makes up for it with elite level speed. If he is designated the starter, his ADP will be 3rd round, if not, then 5th round.
Shaq Lawson- (INJURED) Will get plenty of playing time for the Bills in an outside LB situation. In IDP formats, Lawson is stuck in the same situation many 3-4 outside linebackers, in that he won't get volume tackles, which are more valuable in fantasy football. Lawson, designated as a linebacker, then he becomes less valuable, but still worth a 5th round pick. He will likely miss part of the season and will go undrafted in many dynasty drafts.