Friday, May 13, 2016

2016 NFL Draft - Round 1 - Fantasy Football Impact

Now that the 2016 NFL draft is complete. Let's take a look at the Fantasy Football impact.

Best Situation- Ezekiel Elliott has an opportunity to be an immediate factor in Dallas. Elliott has a top offensive line, an awesome offensive scheme, and the talent to be a top 10 fantasy football contributor from day one. Expect the star to get 20 carries per game, and to contribute receptions as well. Elliot is a lock to be the first or possibly second pick in rookie dynasty drafts.

Opportunities Galore- Corey Coleman was chosen by the Browns to be the top WR in their offense, at least until Josh Gordon gets back on the field. The Browns will be trailing often this year, so Coleman should get garbage time fantasy points this year and in the future. Cleveland does have a bunch of young WRs coming into in camp this year, but Cleveland will be giving Coleman the top billing right out of the gate.  We expect Coleman to be a 1.02-1.05 pick in most rookie dynasty drafts.

Solid Pick-  Laquon Treadwell is a great fit for the Minnesota Vikings. Taking over for the departed Mike Wallace, Treadwell will be the #1 WR from day one of training camp. The Vikings won't rely on all that much with Adrian Peterson around, but he will get plenty of targets this season, including redzone opportunities. Expect Treadwell to be selected 1.02-1.05 in rookie dynasty drafts.

Slow Start Situation- Jared Goff has all the tools to become an impact Quarterback at the NFL level, but don't expect his production to be worthy early in 2016. Los Angeles offense is run-centric, and their pass catchers are average at best. Goff will go through a year or two of tough, on-the-job training, before we will see some Fantasy Football relevant numbers.  Expect late first, early 2nd ADP in Dynasty leagues.

Boom or Bust- Will Fuller was selected by the Houston Texans with their 1st round pick in 2016. Unfortunately for Fuller, the Texans already have a young, top 5 WR in DeAndre Hopkins and Houston also selected an uber talented WR project in Braxton Miller. That said, Fuller has the measurables and the inside track for the WR2 slot. If he thrives, Fuller could be a nice situation for years, but if he falters, Miller may take his targets. Expect early to mid 1st round ADP for Fuller in rookie dynasty drafts.

Lucky Landing - Paxton Lynch will get to play for the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos. In addition, he'll have a chance to play as a rookie, depending on how well he plays and how bad Mark Sanchez performs. Denver has two excellent WRs and a decent running attack to help Lynch get comfortable in the NFL. Expect 2nd round ADP for Lynch.

Patience - Carson Wentz was selected as the Eagles first round pick in 2016, second overall in the draft. Unfortunately for him, there are two QBs on the roster that are getting paid A LOT of money. Wentz is the obvious QB of the future, but he may need a few weeks, even up to a year, as the backup to get his shot. When he takes the starting role, he should be a serviceable starting NFL QB, with top 10 potential with proper development. He's a late 1st to early 2nd pick in rookie drafts.

Sleeper- Josh Doctson is likely a year away from true fantasy value. But with the injury history of the Washington Redskins current WRs, Doctson could be forced into a prominent role earlier than expected. In an offense that was on fire towards the end of 2015, we expect 6-8 TDs from the #2 WR in Washington, which could easily be Doctson if injuries are incurred. Doctson's ADP will likely be early to mid 1st round in Dynasty Rookie drafts.

*IDP Watch List- 
Joey Bosa- As the 3rd overall pick in the draft, Bosa comes to the NFL with high expectations. In San Diego, he'll be asked to fill a DE spot immediately. Simply starting puts Bosa into IDP relativity, and his talent could make him a strong candidate for top 25 DE very soon. We see 2nd or 3rd round ADP for Bosa in Rookie Dynasty IDP drafts.
Karl Joseph - The Raiders have a solid playmaker poised for a three down role as starting safety. He has potential to make big plays in the passing game with his knack for take-aways.  His ADP will be 4th-5th round. 
Keanu Neal- Another good safety in an excellent position to be an immediate starter for the Falcons. Neal will get his chances at tackles, and could be Dan Quinn's next Kam Chancellor type of player. Expect 4th round ADP for Neal.
Darron Lee.- Is a natural three-down player who can tackle, cover and blitz. He's small for the position, but makes up for it with elite level speed. If he is designated the starter, his ADP will be 3rd round, if not, then 5th round.
Shaq Lawson- (INJURED) Will get plenty of playing time for the Bills in an outside LB situation. In IDP formats, Lawson is stuck in the same situation many 3-4 outside linebackers, in that he won't get volume tackles, which are more valuable in fantasy football. Lawson, designated as a linebacker, then he becomes less valuable, but still worth a 5th round pick. He will likely miss part of the season and will go undrafted in many dynasty drafts.

Friday, April 15, 2016

2016 NFL Schedule Analysis - Fantasy Football

We've analyzed the 2016 NFL Schedule against 2015 defensive rankings and have prepared a tool to help you with your strategy for the coming season. Ordered from easiest overall schedule to most difficult overall schedule, the teams and their schedules are locked in. Take a look.

Notes from the editor:
- The Dallas Cowboys have the easiest overall schedule, playing five "bottom 6" teams, and six more "bad" defenses. They only have three tough match-ups all season
- New Orleans got stuck with the toughest schedule this year, playing 10 tough games, with only four games against "bad" defenses.
- Washington will likely get off to a fast offensive start, since they play 7 easy games to start the season. 
- Even though Tampa Bay has nearly the toughest overall SOS, they have excellent match-ups at playoff time. A slate of New Orleans, Dallas and New Orleans in weeks 14-16, make the Buccaneers' stars good buy low candidates.
- The New York Jets have a rough schedule early in 2016, playing CIN, BUF, KC, and SEA in their first four weeks will make the early season difficult.
- It may be wise to keep your distance from the Miami offense during playoff time in 2016.  The Dolphins play three difficult match-ups, of which the final two are in the Northeast blizzard zone (NYJ and BUF).
- The New York Giants have a nice finish to the fantasy season, playing six straight "easy" defenses weeks 11-16.
- The Bears have a bitter sweet FF finish, playing five "bad" defenses and of those five games, four are at home. Unfortunately, that means cold, windy, likely snowy conditions for the Bears.
-  Finally, the Packers offense may slow slightle late in the FF year. Playing HOU, SEA, @CHI, and MIN in cold weather (though three are at Lambeau) weeks 13-16... Aaron Rodgers and his weapons could be solid sell high pieces midseason.

Wednesday, April 13, 2016

2016 Top 30 Dynasty Fantasy Football Players - Offense

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1 Beckham, Odell NYG WR Featured player with amazing skills and and a non-stop motor.2 Jones, Julio ATL WR Size, speed, and talent. A true beast.3 Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR Osweiler could make Nuk even better if he can settle the QB position.4 Brown, Antonio PIT WR Always open, and always getting the ball.5 Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB Averages 23+ touches per game, and makes them count.6 Robinson, Allen JAC WR 80/1400/14 in year two… Many years of production ahead.7 Gurley, Todd RAM RB 100 yards and/or a score in 10 of his last 12 games.8 Cooper, Amari OAK WR Excellent rookie year. He and Carr are getting even better.9 Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE The most productive TE in history, when healthy.  10 Johnson, David ARI RB Took advantage of opportunities… Will now be the focal point in AZ.11 Bryant, Dez DAL WR 2015 hurt, but he'll be back in a big way next year.12 Evans, Mike TBB WR 6'5", 231 lbs, 22 years old, and building rapport with his QB.13 Newton, Cam CAR QB Beast in 2015, already has 43 rush tds, and is only 26 years old.14 Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR Top option in the Bears offense now that Forte and Bennett are gone.15 Luck, Andrew IND QB Tough 2015, but young and extremely talented.16 Green, A.J. CIN WR Averages 83/1234/9 over his career… Not too shabby.17 Watkins, Sammy BUF WR Tons of upside, but BUF needs to force him the ball more.18 Allen, Keenan SDC WR On pace for 134/1450/8 until the injury last year.19 Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB Another strong year, getting Jordy back will help.20 Freeman, Devonta ATL RB All purpose back in a high-powered offense. Needs to stay healthy.21 Cooks, Brandin NOS WR Excellent 2015. Will continue to thrive with Brees throwing the ball.22 Wilson, Russell SEA QB Streaky. Last seven games of 2015 averaged 350 tot yards and 4 TDs/gm.23 Landry, Jarvis MIA WR PPR beast. Will be the underneath weapon in MIA for a while.24 Parker, DeVante MIA WR Came on strong late in rookie campaign. Tons of upside here.25 Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR Still plenty of upside, but who will be his QB going forward?26 Hilton, T.Y. IND WR Nearly guaranteed for 80 recs and 1000 yards annually.27 Benjamin, Kelvin CAR WR IR derailed his 2015… But will be the man for Cam going forward.28 Miller, Lamar HOU RB Solid all around back. Can he be the new Arian Foster?29 Cobb, Randall GBP WR Battled through 2015 injuries. HIs stock rises with Jordy back in the fold.30 Nelson, Jordy GBP WR Still has 3-4 more stellar years… 1200 and 10 type years.

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Top 40 Offensive Rookies - 2015 - How'd They Do?!

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Super Bowl 50 is all set. The Denver Broncos and the Carolina Panthers are taking their talents to the Bay area for what should be a very entertaining end of the 2015 NFL season. As a Dynasty Fantasy Football owner, this time of year is a bit slow as we prepare for the 2016 draft in a short 3-4 months. However, it's always good to do some historical analysis during this time, to understand what happened in previous years and help us to understand where some potential sleepers may lie next year. So, this articles is devoted to the top 40 offensive rookies of 2015 (.5 pt PPR) to help us determine who started their career with a bang, and who started with a bust. Take a look!

As you can see, the top two QBs of the draft lived up to their billing, finishing one and two in the overall scoring for the year.

Also, the consensus #1 pick in most Dynasty Rookie drafts, Todd Gurley, played very well after getting back from his injury, and looks to be a monster for the foreseeable future.

Some names missing from this list include Kevin White, Breshad Perriman and David Cobb, who all had their rookie season blown up by injury.

Finally, David Johnson, Buck Allen, Stefon Diggs, Jamison Crowder, and Will Tye were not expected to do much, but became viable fantasy options in some capacity throughout the 2015 season.

Winston Jameis Mariota Marcus Gurley Todd Johnson David Cooper Amari Lockett Tyler Yeldon T.J. Langford Jeremy Johnson Duke Allen Javorius Diggs Stefon Rawls Thomas Williams Karlos Abdullah Ameer Jones Matt Crowder Jamison Green-Beckham Dorial Gordon Melvin Funchess Devin Tye Will Parker DeVante Walford Clive Williams Maxx Nelson J.J. Humphries Adam Agholor Nelson Coleman Tevin Strong Jaelen Ajayi Jay Conley Chris Dorsett Phillip Greene Rashad Hardy Justin Montgomery Ty Artis-Payne Cameron Kroft Tyler Marquez Bradley Dye Donteea Ward Terron Fowler Jalston

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Top 40 - 2016 Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings - Offense Only

The 2015 NFL regular season is over and the NFL playoffs are in full swing. Predicting next year's rookie only draft is a bit unrealistic, but we'll give it a shot. Based on overall talent and performance on the college level, we can make some educated decisions about who you should target in the 2016 rookie only draft. We've compiled a list of 40 of the best soon-to-be rookies to be aware of for next year's fantasy season. Enjoy. 

Rank Pos Player College Height Weight
1 RB Ezekiel Elliott Ohio State 6'0 2002 WR Laquon Treadwell Mississippi 6'3 2153 RB Derrick Henry Alabama 6'3 2434 WR Corey Davis Western Michigan 6'2 2055 WR Josh Doctson TCU 6'4 1906 WR Tyler Boyd Pittsburgh 6'2 1857 WR Michael Thomas Ohio State 6'3 2038 WR Corey Coleman Baylor 5'11 1909 WR Mike Williams Clemson 6'3 20510 WR De'Runnya Wilson Mississippi State 6'5 21511 RB Devontae Booker Utah 5'11 20312 QB Jared Goff California 6'4 20513 RB Alex Collins Arkansas 5'11 20614 WR Jordan Villamin Oregon State 6'4 23015 WR Pharoh Cooper South Carolina 5'11" 20116 QB Connor Cook Michigan State 6'4 22017 WR Tajae Sharpe UMass 6'4 20018 TE Hunter Henry Arkansas 6'5 25019 RB James Conner Pittsburgh 6'2 22020 WR D'haquille Williams Auburn 6'3 21621 RB Elijah McGuire Lousiana-Lafayette 5'11 19822 RB Corey Clement Wisconsin 5'11 21023 WR Leonte Carroo Rutgers 6'1 20024 WR Braxton Miller Ohio State 6'2 21025 QB Cardale Jones Ohio State 6'5 230