Monday, June 15, 2015

2015 NFL Draft - Round 3 - Fantasy Football Impact - Offense


Today we'll analyze the fantasy football impact of the third round of the 2015 NFL Draft.  There are plenty of high upside players in round three, let's find out what to expect from these young guys.

Clive Walford - TE - Raiders - The former Miami Hurricane was picked by the Oakland Raiders to be their combo tight end. Walford can help Oakland in the running game and through the air right away. Unfortunately for his fantasy stock, he will compete with pass catching TE Michael Rivera for targets, which will limit his value. Walford will likely garner late round consideration in rookie dynasty drafts.

Tyler Lockett - WR - Seahawks - The Seattle Seahawks traded four picks to move up in the third round and snag this former Kansas State star.  Lockett has all the tools to be a go to slot receiver, but his size limits his outside presence.  We project Lockett to be a 2nd/3rd round prospect in dynasty rookie drafts.

Jaelen Strong - WR - Texans - Strong's strength, size and ability to catch contested throws is what Houston coveted when selecting the former ASU receiver. Strong looks the part of a physical, possession receiver with a relatively high floor. He is also expected to be a day one starter for the Texans, so his early potential is high. Unfortunately, Strong has trouble getting separation, which makes him a bit less appealing, we give him a round 2 grade in dynasty rookie drafts.

Tevin Coleman - RB - Falcons - Indiana hasn't produced many ultra-talented players ready for the NFL, but Coleman is an exception to that trend. The Falcons selected Coleman to compete for carries as a rookie, and with only Devonta Freeman ahead of him on the depth chart, his upside is high.  The only knock on Coleman is his lack of ability to miss tackles, which could limit him. If he figures that out, he has the talent to be special. We project Coleman as a middle-late 1st round pick in dynasty rookie drafts. 

 Garrett Grayson - QB- Saints - The former Colorado State Quarterback was picked to take the reigns from Drew Brees in a few years.  Grayson, despite average arm talent, uses good lower-body mechanics to generate velocity.  His touch and accuracy on deep throws is excellent but his decision-making needs to improve.  Grayson's size, production, and growth at the QB position have made him an intriguing long term prospect. We expect him to be a late round pick or go undrafted in dynasty rookie drafts.

Chris Conley - WR - Chiefs - Another big, strong, and fast WR from the SEC, Conley impressed scouts with a 4.35 40 time, a 45 inch vertical, and 18 reps on the bench press.  Unfortunately, his tape wasn't as mind blowing, which makes it hard to tell if he's a workout warrior or an NFL starter. Conley is likely to get some early snaps in Kansas City, but we still have to consider him a high risk high reward type of player.  Expect him to be a 3rd round pick in dynasty rookie drafts. 

Duke Johnson - RB- Browns - Johnson, a first-team All-ACC selection in 2014 has all the tools to be a true stud in the NFL.  Rated No. 1 running back in the nation out of high school, Johnson's explosive quickness and elusiveness should help him adapt quickly to NFL speed. However, Johnson's lack of pass-protection skills, concerns about his durability, and being selected by the Browns will likely force him into a committee situation. We see Johnson as a late 1st, early 2nd round pick in dynasty rookie drafts.

Tyler Kroft - TE - Bengals - The Rutgers alum has the size, athleticism and blocking ability to  fit most offenses. In Cincinnati, Kroft will have to compete with Eifert for his opportunities in the NFL.  If Eifert struggles, Kroft could thrive, which could make him one of the top tight ends to come from this draft class. We expect Kroft to be a late round pick in rookie dynasty drafts.

David Johnson - RB- Cardinals - At 6'1", 225 pounds, the former Northern Iowa man could be a force in the NFL. Johnson compliment to Andre Ellington, which will help Arizona in short yardage situations. Due to his lack of quickness, Johnson doesn't project to be a three down back, which reduces his value.  We expect Johnson to be selected in the second round in dynasty rookied drafts.

Sammie Coates - WR - Steelers - The Steelers picked Coates to be a nice compliment to Antonio Brown in their revamped passing game. Coates is a vertical wide receiver who has some development to do. We don't expect much initial production from him, but is Coates can develop, his upside is that of Mike Wallace in this offense.  We project Coates as a 3rd round pick in rookie dynasty drafts.

Sean Mannion - QB- Rams - The former Oregon State, four year starter was selected by St. Louis as an insurance policy to Nick Foles. Mannion usually plays with confidence, but if he's behind the chains he becomes shaky and the turnovers start rolling in. Mannion lacks arm talent to carry an offense, but he has enough ability to become a capable backup. He'll be a FA in most dynasty leagues this year.

Jeff Heuerman - TE - Broncos - The ex-Buckeye had an injury plagued 2014, but when healthy, he is  a vertical pass-catching tight end who can be moved all over the formation. Denver needs to replace Julius Thomas, so Heuerman's potential is high at the moment, but there are others in front of him on the Broncos depth chart. Heuerman could be a late flyer pick in dynasty rookie drafts, but will likely be available as a free agent.

Ty Montgomery - WR - Green Bay - Another under the radar pick the the Green Bay Packers, Montgomery has plenty of skills to be a factor in the NFL. The Packers will use him immediately as a return man, but will give him time to develop his WR abilities. Montgomery is a likable person with high character which will keep him on the field. Expect him to be a later round pick in rookie dynasty drafts.

Matt Jones - RB- Redskins - Jones is a large man, at 6'2", 231 pounds, but the former Florida back lacks the instincts and vision to fully maximize on his size. We see him as a pile mover, depth pick by Washington, and expect him to be selected in the 4th round of rookie dynasty drafts.