Friday, May 9, 2014

2014 NFL Draft - Round 1 - Fantasy Football Impact

Now that Round 1 of the 2014 NFL draft is complete. Let's take a look at the Fantasy Football impact.

Best Situation- Mike Evans has an opportunity to be a major factor in Tampa Bay. He will be going against CB2s early on as he develops and will eventually take over WR1 duties once Vincent Jackson is finished. Additionally, Evans gets to play in an offense with a dynamic running game (as long as Martin is healthy) and work in a division that scores a lot of points. Even though the QB position is not perfect, Josh McCown knows how to work with large receivers (Marshall and Jeffrey in Chicago), making Evans a younger version of Alshon Jeffrey. Look for Evans to be a 1.01 or 1.02 in all rookie dynasty drafts.

Solid Pick-  Odell Beckham Jr. is a great fit for the New York Giants. Working with Eli Manning and learning from Victor Cruz will help Beckham quickly develop into a solid WR2. The Giants don't have a ton of playmakers, which will create urgency to get Beckham Jr. into the fold quickly. Rueben Randle, Mario Manningham, Jerrel Jernigan and Trindon Holliday will all get so playing time, but don't expect them to hinder this 1st round pick from getting his targets. Expect 1.03-1.06 ADP in rookie dynasty drafts.

Tough Situation- Sammy Watkins could have a major impact at the next level, but it will take an open-minded staff and creative playbook to get the most from him at the start. Hopefully, Buffalo has that figured out, but with a young QB (EJ Manuel), and players like Mike Williams and Robert Woods in the fold, it seems like Buffalo has it's work cut out.  No doubt, Watkins is the WR1 in Buffalo, but can the offense produce enough to make Watkins a WR1 in Fantasy Football. We're not quite sure, expect 1.01-1.02 ADP, but less than stellar stats early on.

Cursed?- Johnny Manziel was selected by the Cleveland Browns after falling through 21 picks in the first round. Now, with Josh Gordon, Jordan Cameron, and Ben Tate in the mix, the Browns skill players seem solid. However, it's Cleveland, and somehow Quarterbacks never work out there. Chances are Manziel will start the 2014 season on the bench behind Hoyer, but as the season progresses, people will get antsy and want to see him play, which he will. We're not sure Manziel will thrive as a Brown, but he'll get his chance fairly early in his career.  Expect late 1st round-early 2nd round ADP for him in rookie dynasty drafts.

Best Spot Possible - Brandin Cooks is the perfect fit for the Saints offense. Sean Peyton loves designing plays for quick, speedy players and Drew Brees is a master at getting the ball to his playmakers. With Sproles and Moore out of the picture, there will be plenty of targets for Cooks throughout the season. Additionally, the Oregon State alum is well liked by all scouts and will be a good locker room addition in New Orleans. Expect mid 1st round ADP for Cooks.

Immediate Starter- Eric Ebron was a slight surprise pick by the Detroit Lions considering they re-signed Pettigrew and Fauria just finished a relatively strong rookie season. However, Ebron is in a great position to be a top 10 Fantasy Tight End as a rookie. He has the speed and the size to be a factor in the Lions passing game, and will not be double teamed with Calvin Johnson around. Expect mid 1st round ADP for Ebron with very high upside once Pettigrew moves on from Detroit.

Patience - Teddy Bridgewater was selected as the final pick in the first round as the Minnesota Vikings traded up into the first round to get him.  The Vikings are a good place for Bridgewater to be, as they have Cassel short term and Norv Turner to coach him up. Expect Bridgewater to sit for his rookie year (unless there is an injury) and learn. Then, when Cassel is done, he'll take over a team with Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Rudolph ready to make him look good.  Expect 2nd-3rd round ADP for Bridgewater.

Biggest Surprise- Blake Bortles was expected to be a first round pick in this draft. Some had him going to Houston at #1, but once Houston picked Clowney, many believed Bortles would be the one to slide, not Manziel. So when the Jaguars made him the 3rd pick, people were surprised. However, Bortles is a good fit for the Jaguars, who will now focus on adding weapons around the young QB to make him better. We won't expect much out of Bortles for a year or two, but he should be a consistant, pocket passer, similar to an Eli Manning or a Joe Flacco. Expect 2nd-3rd round ADP for Bortles.

Sleeper- Kelvin Benjamin has the chance to take over as the Carolina Panthers #1 redzone threat. Since there isn't a whole lot of competition for targets from Cam Newton, expect solid numbers right away from Benjamin. Unfortunately, Benjamin does not have the speed or explosion to be a WR1, so he may struggle against the top CBs in the NFL, but he'll still get his fair share of jump balls in the end zone. Expect 6-8 TDs from the late 1st round pick.  His ADP will likely be end of the 1st round in Dynasty Rookie drafts.

IDP Watch List- 
Jadeveon Clowney- With J.J. Watt motivating him, Clowney should be a beast. Expect 10+ sacks. ADP end of 1st round.
C.J. Mosley - The Ravens have a solid playmaker. If he is a 3 down linebacker right away, expect LB2 numbers as a rookie.  ADP will be early 3rd round. 
Deone Bucannon- The safety is a heavy hitter, and should get playing time early in his career and can make plays sideline to sideline. He'll be a nice SS to own in Dyanasty IDP. Expect 4th round ADP
Jimmie Ward- Another playmaking safety, but goes to a team that already has solid Safeties. The 49ers may not need him all that much as a rookie, but he should develop into a nice asset down the road. Expect round 5 ADP for Ward.

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