BannerAd

Wednesday, April 26, 2017

2017 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule


The 2017 schedule is OUT! I’ve taken a look at the entire schedule and analyzed each game against 2016 statistics. Based on this research, I was able to formulate parameters to quantify each NFL team’s Fantasy Strength of Schedule. Take a look at my findings below!

Parameters:
I use the combination below to identify PLUS and MINUS defenses based on last year’s stats. Obviously, in the offseason teams make changes, so these rankings won’t be perfect.  But most of the time, bad defenses stay bad and good defenses stay good, so these parameters will give smart fantasy owners a guideline of what teams should have a better chance to score higher fantasy points throughout the season.
Bottom 6 D (2)
Bad Run D (1)
Bad Pass D (1)
Top 5 D (-2)
Good Run D (-1)
Good Pass D (-1)
SF
BUF
GB

HOU
NE
JAX
CLE
OAK
TEN

ARI
NYG
BAL
IND
CHI
CAR

MN
LAC
LAR
MIA
TB
ATL

DEN
NYJ
CIN
WSH

DAL

SEA


NO









Full 2017 NFL Strength of Schedule Grid                                                             
*Note: Playoffs are defined as weeks 14 through 16














Team by Team Analysis
Arizona: Fairly easy start with four of first six against plus matchups. Very difficult weeks 10-13, as all four games are minus matchups. Plus playoff matchups with only slight weather concern in week 15.

Atlanta: Overall soft schedule with minor concerns in weeks 7, 8 and 11, all on the road against minus matchups. Playoffs are extremely favorable with New Orleans twice and no weather concerns.

Baltimore: Two of first three games are at minus matchups, but after that, not many pitfalls. Playoffs have two bottom five defenses in CLE and IND, but some weather concerns for the playoffs as all 3 games will be played outdoors in the Northeast.

Buffalo: Overall, middle of the road schedule saved by two easy playoff matchups. All late games for the Bills will all be affected by weather.

Carolina: Graded out as the easiest schedule in fantasy football. Only three minus matchups all year along with 11 plus matchups. Excellent playoff schedule. Additionally, all three of the Panthers playoff games are home.

Chicago: Easy schedule overall. Zero minus rushing matchups for J.Howard to face. Average playoff schedule as well.

Cincinnati: Schedule middle of the pack. Easy stretch form week 3 to week 8. At MIN in week 15 only tough playoff matchup.

Cleveland: Ouch. The Browns have the 2nd most difficult schedule in the league, including six games against tough pass defenses and weather concerns in every week of the playoffs.

Dallas: First Month will be tough, but then six of next eight games are plus matchups. Playoffs might be tough also, playing solid defenses like @NYG and SEA.

Denver: No top 5 defenses on Broncos’ schedule. They play four of last five games against plus matchups. Interesting that they will play on the road in  weeks 12, 13, 15, and 16. That’s a lot of travel.

Detroit: Three of their first four are minus matchups in 2017, but weeks 5 to 11 are favorable. Playoffs are about average.

Green Bay: Up and down schedule. Weeks 13 to 15 will be favorable, but week 16 in Green Bay against MIN may be low scoring.

Houston: Seven Houston’s of first 11 games are negative matchups. On the bright side, they get CLE, IND, and SF at home. No weather concerns for the final two months of the season.

Indianapolis: Graded out as the toughest fantasy schedule of 2017. They are scheduled to face five top 5 defenses and another five solid pass defenses. The playoffs include DEN and @BAL. Yuck.

Jacksonville: It will be a tough fantasy 2017 for the Jaguars offense, playing nine tough matchups in their first 14 games. Playoffs don’t get any better, consisting of SEA and HOU, which will be tough.

Kansas City: Middle of the road schedule with an even mix of plus and minus games. All three playoff games in are home at Arrowhead.

L.A. Rams: The Rams should start very fast, playing three bottom five defenses in a row to start the season. Then things come crashing down, as they have six straight minus matchups from week five forward. Week 15 @SEA will likely squash any playoff success for Rams players in the 2017 playoffs.

L.A. Chargers: The Chargers have some tough games early, but weeks 11 to 14 are plus matchups. The playoffs could prove difficult as the Chargers are on the road in cold weather for weeks 15 and 16.

Miami: The Dolphins have an equal amount of plus and minus games overall, but Miami gets stuck with @NE, DEN, NE, @BUF and @KC to finish the fantasy season. Not fun for Dolphin player owners who make the playoffs.

Minnesota: The Vikings have the second easiest fantasy schedule, playing zero top 5 defenses, while piling up 10 easy matchups in 2017. Look for Vikings offense to get solid production throughout this season, making Bradford a nice little sleeper option for streaming.

New England: A relatively easy schedule for Tom Brady’s gang. Look for them to roll up solid points in nearly every game with the possible exception of @DEN in week 10.

New Orleans: The Saints should have no problem hanging points up in 2017. After a pair of tough games they get 11 of their next 13 against plus defensive matchups. Atlanta’s defense twice in the fantasy playoffs should allow Brees and Co. to finish strong in the playoffs.

New York Giants: Streaky schedule for the G-men. Their first four games should be easy, followed by four tough, followed again another six easy ones. Their playoffs will be weather dependent, with weeks 14 and 15 being in New York/New Jersey.

New York Jets: Plenty of plus matchups for the Jets in 2017. Only one road game against a top defense (@DEN) which unfortunately comes up at playoff time (week 14). Everything else should be fairly manageable.

Oakland: Tough schedule for Oakland this year with multiple stretches of minus matchups up through week 13. If you get Oakland’s players to the playoffs, they should do alright as they have zero negative matchups then.

Philadelphia: They have a uniform mix of plus and minus games on the schedule. Their playoffs look tough, with @LA, @NYG, and OAK on the docket. It won’t be easy for the Eagles offense in 2017.

Pittsburgh: The Steelers fantasy studs might have it rough this season, going through a pair of four game stretches against minus matchups, including BAL, NE, and @HOU in the playoffs.

Seattle: The Seahawks will likely start out hot against their first four plus matchups to start the season, but then they’ll cool down with some tough games the rest of the way. Weather shouldn’t be a factor in the playoffs as they get to go to Florida and Texas for weeks 14 and 16 respectively.

Tampa Bay: Weeks 3 through seven will be tough for the Buccaneers, but after that, look for Jameis Winston, Mike Evan, and DeSean Jackson to step up during fantasy playoffs. Tampa’s last six games against bad pass defenses.

Tennessee: The Titans face a tough schedule in 2017. Only one sweet spot (weeks 5-7) resides on their whole schedule, so don’t expect great things from Tennessee. The playoffs aren’t any better as their matchups against ARI and SF are on the road… That’s a lot of travel for the Titans to deal with.

Washington: After a benign start to the season, Washington will face a gauntlet later on, running into seven minus matchups of their last 10 games.

Top 10 Easiest Schedules - Overall

Most Bottom 6 Defenses on schedule = LAR, TEN (5)
Most Bad Run Defenses on schedule = NYJ, NE (5)
Most Bad Pass Defenses on schedule = NO, TB (5)

Least Top 5 Defenses on schedule = DEN, MIN (0)
Least Tough Run Defenses on schedule = CHI, NYG, GB, MIN, BAL, CIN, TEN, IND (0)
Least Tough Pass Defenses on schedule = TB, CAR, ATL (0)




Top 10 Toughest Schedules - Overall

Least Bottom 6 Defenses on schedule = GB, MIA, CLE (1)
Least Bad Run Defenses on schedule = SEA, LA, JAX (0)
Least Bad Pass Defenses on schedule = TEN (1)

Most Top 5 Defenses on schedule = LAR (5)
Most Tough Run Defenses on schedule = BUF, MIA (4)
Most Tough Pass Defenses on schedule = CLE (6)



Top and Bottom Playoff Strength of Schedule


Seven Easiest Schedules - Playoffs
TEAM
14
15
16
ATL
NO
@TB
@NO
BAL
@PIT
@CLE
IND
DEN
NYJ
@IND
@WSH
NE
@MIA
@PIT
BUF
KC
OAK
@LAC
MIA
ARI
TEN
@WSH
NYG
TB
DET
ATL
@CAR

Seven Toughest Schedules – Playoffs
TEAM
14
15
16
WSH
@LAC
ARI
DEN
PIT
BAL
NE
@HOU
IND
@BUF
DEN
@BAL
SF
@HOU
TEN
JAX
JAX
SEA
HOU
@SF
DAL
@NYG
@OAK
SEA
LA
PHI
@SEA
@TEN


Friday, May 13, 2016

2016 NFL Draft - Round 1 - Fantasy Football Impact



Now that the 2016 NFL draft is complete. Let's take a look at the Fantasy Football impact.

Best Situation- Ezekiel Elliott has an opportunity to be an immediate factor in Dallas. Elliott has a top offensive line, an awesome offensive scheme, and the talent to be a top 10 fantasy football contributor from day one. Expect the star to get 20 carries per game, and to contribute receptions as well. Elliot is a lock to be the first or possibly second pick in rookie dynasty drafts.

Opportunities Galore- Corey Coleman was chosen by the Browns to be the top WR in their offense, at least until Josh Gordon gets back on the field. The Browns will be trailing often this year, so Coleman should get garbage time fantasy points this year and in the future. Cleveland does have a bunch of young WRs coming into in camp this year, but Cleveland will be giving Coleman the top billing right out of the gate.  We expect Coleman to be a 1.02-1.05 pick in most rookie dynasty drafts.

Solid Pick-  Laquon Treadwell is a great fit for the Minnesota Vikings. Taking over for the departed Mike Wallace, Treadwell will be the #1 WR from day one of training camp. The Vikings won't rely on all that much with Adrian Peterson around, but he will get plenty of targets this season, including redzone opportunities. Expect Treadwell to be selected 1.02-1.05 in rookie dynasty drafts.

Slow Start Situation- Jared Goff has all the tools to become an impact Quarterback at the NFL level, but don't expect his production to be worthy early in 2016. Los Angeles offense is run-centric, and their pass catchers are average at best. Goff will go through a year or two of tough, on-the-job training, before we will see some Fantasy Football relevant numbers.  Expect late first, early 2nd ADP in Dynasty leagues.

Boom or Bust- Will Fuller was selected by the Houston Texans with their 1st round pick in 2016. Unfortunately for Fuller, the Texans already have a young, top 5 WR in DeAndre Hopkins and Houston also selected an uber talented WR project in Braxton Miller. That said, Fuller has the measurables and the inside track for the WR2 slot. If he thrives, Fuller could be a nice situation for years, but if he falters, Miller may take his targets. Expect early to mid 1st round ADP for Fuller in rookie dynasty drafts.

Lucky Landing - Paxton Lynch will get to play for the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos. In addition, he'll have a chance to play as a rookie, depending on how well he plays and how bad Mark Sanchez performs. Denver has two excellent WRs and a decent running attack to help Lynch get comfortable in the NFL. Expect 2nd round ADP for Lynch.

Patience - Carson Wentz was selected as the Eagles first round pick in 2016, second overall in the draft. Unfortunately for him, there are two QBs on the roster that are getting paid A LOT of money. Wentz is the obvious QB of the future, but he may need a few weeks, even up to a year, as the backup to get his shot. When he takes the starting role, he should be a serviceable starting NFL QB, with top 10 potential with proper development. He's a late 1st to early 2nd pick in rookie drafts.

Sleeper- Josh Doctson is likely a year away from true fantasy value. But with the injury history of the Washington Redskins current WRs, Doctson could be forced into a prominent role earlier than expected. In an offense that was on fire towards the end of 2015, we expect 6-8 TDs from the #2 WR in Washington, which could easily be Doctson if injuries are incurred. Doctson's ADP will likely be early to mid 1st round in Dynasty Rookie drafts.

*IDP Watch List- 
Joey Bosa- As the 3rd overall pick in the draft, Bosa comes to the NFL with high expectations. In San Diego, he'll be asked to fill a DE spot immediately. Simply starting puts Bosa into IDP relativity, and his talent could make him a strong candidate for top 25 DE very soon. We see 2nd or 3rd round ADP for Bosa in Rookie Dynasty IDP drafts.
Karl Joseph - The Raiders have a solid playmaker poised for a three down role as starting safety. He has potential to make big plays in the passing game with his knack for take-aways.  His ADP will be 4th-5th round. 
Keanu Neal- Another good safety in an excellent position to be an immediate starter for the Falcons. Neal will get his chances at tackles, and could be Dan Quinn's next Kam Chancellor type of player. Expect 4th round ADP for Neal.
Darron Lee.- Is a natural three-down player who can tackle, cover and blitz. He's small for the position, but makes up for it with elite level speed. If he is designated the starter, his ADP will be 3rd round, if not, then 5th round.
Shaq Lawson- (INJURED) Will get plenty of playing time for the Bills in an outside LB situation. In IDP formats, Lawson is stuck in the same situation many 3-4 outside linebackers, in that he won't get volume tackles, which are more valuable in fantasy football. Lawson, designated as a linebacker, then he becomes less valuable, but still worth a 5th round pick. He will likely miss part of the season and will go undrafted in many dynasty drafts.


Friday, April 15, 2016

2016 NFL Schedule Analysis - Fantasy Football

We've analyzed the 2016 NFL Schedule against 2015 defensive rankings and have prepared a tool to help you with your strategy for the coming season. Ordered from easiest overall schedule to most difficult overall schedule, the teams and their schedules are locked in. Take a look.

Notes from the editor:
- The Dallas Cowboys have the easiest overall schedule, playing five "bottom 6" teams, and six more "bad" defenses. They only have three tough match-ups all season
- New Orleans got stuck with the toughest schedule this year, playing 10 tough games, with only four games against "bad" defenses.
- Washington will likely get off to a fast offensive start, since they play 7 easy games to start the season. 
- Even though Tampa Bay has nearly the toughest overall SOS, they have excellent match-ups at playoff time. A slate of New Orleans, Dallas and New Orleans in weeks 14-16, make the Buccaneers' stars good buy low candidates.
- The New York Jets have a rough schedule early in 2016, playing CIN, BUF, KC, and SEA in their first four weeks will make the early season difficult.
- It may be wise to keep your distance from the Miami offense during playoff time in 2016.  The Dolphins play three difficult match-ups, of which the final two are in the Northeast blizzard zone (NYJ and BUF).
- The New York Giants have a nice finish to the fantasy season, playing six straight "easy" defenses weeks 11-16.
- The Bears have a bitter sweet FF finish, playing five "bad" defenses and of those five games, four are at home. Unfortunately, that means cold, windy, likely snowy conditions for the Bears.
-  Finally, the Packers offense may slow slightle late in the FF year. Playing HOU, SEA, @CHI, and MIN in cold weather (though three are at Lambeau) weeks 13-16... Aaron Rodgers and his weapons could be solid sell high pieces midseason.





Wednesday, April 13, 2016

2016 Top 30 Dynasty Fantasy Football Players - Offense

Picture source: bleacherreport.com


1 Beckham, Odell NYG WR Featured player with amazing skills and and a non-stop motor.2 Jones, Julio ATL WR Size, speed, and talent. A true beast.3 Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR Osweiler could make Nuk even better if he can settle the QB position.4 Brown, Antonio PIT WR Always open, and always getting the ball.5 Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB Averages 23+ touches per game, and makes them count.6 Robinson, Allen JAC WR 80/1400/14 in year two… Many years of production ahead.7 Gurley, Todd RAM RB 100 yards and/or a score in 10 of his last 12 games.8 Cooper, Amari OAK WR Excellent rookie year. He and Carr are getting even better.9 Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE The most productive TE in history, when healthy.  10 Johnson, David ARI RB Took advantage of opportunities… Will now be the focal point in AZ.11 Bryant, Dez DAL WR 2015 hurt, but he'll be back in a big way next year.12 Evans, Mike TBB WR 6'5", 231 lbs, 22 years old, and building rapport with his QB.13 Newton, Cam CAR QB Beast in 2015, already has 43 rush tds, and is only 26 years old.14 Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR Top option in the Bears offense now that Forte and Bennett are gone.15 Luck, Andrew IND QB Tough 2015, but young and extremely talented.16 Green, A.J. CIN WR Averages 83/1234/9 over his career… Not too shabby.17 Watkins, Sammy BUF WR Tons of upside, but BUF needs to force him the ball more.18 Allen, Keenan SDC WR On pace for 134/1450/8 until the injury last year.19 Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB Another strong year, getting Jordy back will help.20 Freeman, Devonta ATL RB All purpose back in a high-powered offense. Needs to stay healthy.21 Cooks, Brandin NOS WR Excellent 2015. Will continue to thrive with Brees throwing the ball.22 Wilson, Russell SEA QB Streaky. Last seven games of 2015 averaged 350 tot yards and 4 TDs/gm.23 Landry, Jarvis MIA WR PPR beast. Will be the underneath weapon in MIA for a while.24 Parker, DeVante MIA WR Came on strong late in rookie campaign. Tons of upside here.25 Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR Still plenty of upside, but who will be his QB going forward?26 Hilton, T.Y. IND WR Nearly guaranteed for 80 recs and 1000 yards annually.27 Benjamin, Kelvin CAR WR IR derailed his 2015… But will be the man for Cam going forward.28 Miller, Lamar HOU RB Solid all around back. Can he be the new Arian Foster?29 Cobb, Randall GBP WR Battled through 2015 injuries. HIs stock rises with Jordy back in the fold.30 Nelson, Jordy GBP WR Still has 3-4 more stellar years… 1200 and 10 type years.